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Turkey Considers the Status of Abkhazia
By: Emrullah Uslu
In
response to a question as to whether Ankara and Moscow have reached a
deal to recognize Abkhazia and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,
the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated: “Russia will not
enter a deal implying the recognition of Northern Cyprus in exchange
for Turkish recognition of Abkhazia” (Zaman, October 4).
The debate was
originally triggered by an article written by Paul Goble in the Moscow
Times on September 16. Goble argued that: “There appears to be a chance
that Turkey, despite denials by its officials, might break the embargo
against recognition because of Ankara’s desire to play a greater role
in the South Caucasus region, its own long-standing experience as the
only country to recognize the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, and the
influence of its own Abkhaz and Circassian communities.” He based his
argument on the intention of the Turkish Foreign Minister Akhmet
Davutoglu to visit Abkhazia in order to “get acquainted with [that
republic] and attempt to regulate its relations with Georgia,” while he
continued, “thus potentially positioning Turkey to play a role
paralleling the one it has offered to play between Azerbaijan and
Armenia.” Two days later, Unal Cevikoz, the Deputy Under Secretary for
Political Affairs in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, who is of Circassian
descent, visited Sukhumi and met with the Abkhazian Foreign Minister
Sergey Shamba. While Turkish officials said that Ankara had informed
Tbilisi about the visit and had not changed its policy of supporting
the territorial integrity of Georgia, Cevikoz’s visit raised hopes in
Sukhumi (The Moscow Times, September 16).
Regarding Cevikoz’s
visit to the region, Davutoglu said that the existence of the Abkhaz
community in Turkey compels Ankara to consider how to resolve this
problem. “We know very well that having peace and stability in the
South Caucasus region without achieving this in Georgia is very
difficult. With these thoughts and perspectives, Turkey will continue
making efforts toward the resolution of the Abkhazian conflict, as it
has done in previous years” Davutoglu explained (Today’s Zaman,
September 8).
Goble’s analysis
also triggered a new debate within Turkey. The Turkish media ran
optimistic stories about the possibility of such mutually beneficial
recognition policies (Vatan, September 21). However, Turkish analysts
are skeptical that Turkey would want to recognize Abkhazia or that
Russia would choose to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus (www.turksam.org, September 27).
Recently, Lavrov
joined the debate and revealed Moscow’s position: Russia will not enter
any deal implying the recognition of Northern Cyprus in exchange for
the Turkish recognition of Abkhazia. “We are not inclined to enter any
deals following ‘scratch my back and I'll scratch yours’ logic. These
are two absolutely different stories. These are different situations
from the historical, moral and humanitarian points of view. Any
bargaining is out of the question. Each situation should be considered
in its historical context,” Lavrov added (www.russiatoday.ru, October 3).
It seems that
Lavrov’s emphasis on history may indicate that Ankara could be
interested in establishing some form of relations with Abkhazia.
Historically tens of thousands of Muslim Abkhazians moved to the
Ottoman empire, as part of a larger Muslim migration process from the
Caucasus in the nineteenth century. Approximately 500,000 Abkhazian
descendents now live in Turkey. In addition, other Caucasus communities
in Turkey have close relations with Abkhazians. The only exception is
the Georgian descended Muslim communities in Turkey. Due to their over
representation in critical government institutions, such as the
National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the Turkish armed forces, and
their nationalist outlook, Abkhazians retain significant lobbying power
in Ankara.
By emphasizing the
historical perspective, Moscow might expect help from these communities
in order to generate pressure on the Turkish government to establish
some form of relationship with Abkhazia. Cevikoz’s visit to Sukhumi may
indicate a policy shift in Ankara. In 2007, when the Abkhaz leader
Sergey Bagapsh wanted to visit Turkey to meet with the Abkhaz diaspora,
the Turkish government refused to issue a visa and President Abdullah
Gul at the time stated that “I can only reiterate in this regard that
Turkey supports Georgia’s territorial integrity” (www.civil.ge, November 21, 2007).
The crucial
question remains: since 2007, what has changed that has required
Turkish diplomats to visit the region? Hasan Kanpolat, a Turkish
analyst who has close relations with the Turkish foreign minister,
pointed out what had led the government to revise its outlook toward
Abkhazia:
“During a period in
which Abkhazia’s independence process has begun to gain momentum,
Cevikoz could not have gone to Sukhumi to engage in efforts to restart
a peace process between Abkhazia and Georgia. Therefore, we can presume
that, to prevent Abkhazia from unifying any further with the Russian
Federation, Ankara may have asked Tbilisi to allow a controlled
relationship with Abkhazia. To be more explicit, the door may be opened
to preventing Georgia from intercepting ships on humanitarian missions
or those involved in trade traveling between Turkey and Abkhazia using
the Black Sea” (Today’s Zaman, September 17).
Kanpolat further
argues that Ankara sees that a close relationship with Abkhazia would
eventually produce a similar multi-dimensional relationship with
Cypriot Turks in the eastern Mediterranean. Abkhazia in this case would
become an accessible Black Sea coastline for Turkey.
7 Oct. '09 ...back
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